All too often, investors dream of becoming the next great trader like Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, Richard Dennis or Jesse Livermore.
They want to be that gun-slinging trader squeezing millions of dollars
of profit out of the stock market on a daily basis. The chances of an
average investor reaching these heights are about the same as that of a
high school quarterback one day taking snaps for the Green Bay Packers
in the NFL.
Like becoming a star NFL quarterback, becoming a great trader takes a combination of great skills, a singular mindset and an almost fanatical devotion to the craft. Even then, success can be highly dependent of lady luck smiling kindly upon you along the way. This fascination with trading is one of the major reasons individual investor have performed so poorly over time.
Investors would be much better off to seek to emulate private equity firm founders like Leon Black, David Rubenstein and Henry Kravis. They have racked up huge returns for investors in their private equity funds. Consistently, private equity is among the leading asset classes in performance and have handily beaten the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index over the 10- and 20-year periods. Investors who emulate these private equity founders’ approaches would be far better off over time than those who attempt to trade short-to-intermediate-term moves.
For individual investors, adopting the private equity mindset is not only more profitable, it also frees up an enormous amount of time. Your focus becomes buying assets and companies at attractive prices and holding for a long period of time. You are far more concerned about where the stock or sector ETF will be priced in 2020 and a lot less concerned about where it will close this afternoon. This eliminates checking prices on coffee breaks, lunchtime broker calls and obsessive price checking on your smartphone during meals and family activities.
In weak markets, private equity firms are likely to be buying what others are selling. In strong markets, they are selling highly appreciated assets. Last fall, as asset prices were selling at high multiples of earnings and cash flow, private equity firm Apollo Global Management’s Cofounder Leon Black famously said that his shop was selling everything that wasn’t nailed down. That continues today as public equities have continued to increase in value. Private equity firms are selling more than they are buying.
*The author had no holdings in any of the securities mentioned at the time of writing.
Like becoming a star NFL quarterback, becoming a great trader takes a combination of great skills, a singular mindset and an almost fanatical devotion to the craft. Even then, success can be highly dependent of lady luck smiling kindly upon you along the way. This fascination with trading is one of the major reasons individual investor have performed so poorly over time.
Investors would be much better off to seek to emulate private equity firm founders like Leon Black, David Rubenstein and Henry Kravis. They have racked up huge returns for investors in their private equity funds. Consistently, private equity is among the leading asset classes in performance and have handily beaten the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index over the 10- and 20-year periods. Investors who emulate these private equity founders’ approaches would be far better off over time than those who attempt to trade short-to-intermediate-term moves.
Longer Term Means Larger Profits
Private equity investor take a very long-term approach to the market. They tend to buy assets that are out of favor and undervalued and hold them for a very long period of time. According to industry research firm Prequin, the holding period of the average private equity investment is now at 5.5 years. Compare that to the average investor holding period of just 17 weeks. As Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Corporation Charlie Munger once observed, “The big money is not in the buying and selling but in the waiting.” Individual investors are missing the big gains because they find it difficult wait long enough for the money to be madeFor individual investors, adopting the private equity mindset is not only more profitable, it also frees up an enormous amount of time. Your focus becomes buying assets and companies at attractive prices and holding for a long period of time. You are far more concerned about where the stock or sector ETF will be priced in 2020 and a lot less concerned about where it will close this afternoon. This eliminates checking prices on coffee breaks, lunchtime broker calls and obsessive price checking on your smartphone during meals and family activities.
Listen and Learn
Because some of the larger private equity firms are publicly traded, four times a year, they will tell you what they are buying and selling in their funds. Listening to the earnings conference calls of Apollo Global Management LLC (APO), Blackstone Group LP (BX), Carlyle Group LP (CG) and KKR & Co LP (KKR) each quarter can help you develop a sense of where long-term opportunities lie and which sectors are ripe for departure. In fact, listening to these quarterly calls should be a mandatory activity for all long-term investors. Knowing the moves of the best in the private equity industry can help you spot opportunities that others miss.In weak markets, private equity firms are likely to be buying what others are selling. In strong markets, they are selling highly appreciated assets. Last fall, as asset prices were selling at high multiples of earnings and cash flow, private equity firm Apollo Global Management’s Cofounder Leon Black famously said that his shop was selling everything that wasn’t nailed down. That continues today as public equities have continued to increase in value. Private equity firms are selling more than they are buying.
What Are They Buying Now?
A look at the most recent quarterly earnings conference calls will give you an indication of where the private equity firms are looking to invest. Most are cautiously approaching the energy sector. In fact, Carlyle Group Cofounder and Co-CEO David Rubenstein said that although oil may go down before it goes up, the commodity is probably be the best investment in the world going forward. Most private equity firms are also heavily involved in corporate lending as they move into fill a hole in the loan markets left by banks derisking their balance sheets. New regulations passed in the aftermath of the credit crisis have caused banks to pull back from riskier loans and leveraged buyout transactions. Investors can access these middle market lending markets now ignored by the banks by using publicly traded business development companies. Such companies are free to engage in these types of lending, and several have strong relationships with private equity firms. All of the large private equity funds are involved in commercial real estate ownership and finance which can be replicated using real estate investment trusts (REITs) that specialize in this area.The Bottom Line
The private equity mindset is really just buying low and selling high. Although this maxim is frequently quoted, it is not often practiced on Wall Street. Private equity mindset investors are looking for returns measured in multiples and not just percentages. They understand that if you buy stock in an out-of-favor company at an attractive price, it is a simple matter of waiting for time to do the heavy lifting. Most individuals earn far less than they should in the stock market because of overtrading and chasing the hot stocks of the day. Adopting the private equity mindset can not only eliminate the frustration of short-term trading but can ultimately lead to much higher returns over time.*The author had no holdings in any of the securities mentioned at the time of writing.
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